Friday, January 31, 2014

Careful Mr. Kerry; This Tomato Might Explode but NOT Turn into Heinz Ketchup....

Today, I am sending you this note from the capital of Jordan, Amman.

I keep hearing about the importance of the latest round of negotiations between the Palestinians and Israelis. Mr. Kerry thinks he can solve an age old problem and I generally applaud his efforts. However, I have been to this movie before so let me tell you how it ends (sorry for being a spoiler).

The process that is currently being executed is not really a negotiation; its John Kerry and the Obama administration imposing the solution they think will work in their minds on both sides. There is some merit to this type of process when you know there is much difference between the split parties but it also shows a deep misunderstanding of the nature of the problems in the conflict. The main problem is that Israelis want PEACE and SECURITY and the Palestinians want the Israeli's DEAD and OUT of "their" county. This brings to surface a big undertone of mistrust between the sides which in my opinion cannot be bridged. Think I am inaccurate? Just look at the texts books that children are being given in class in the Palestinian territories describing Jews and Christians as monkeys and pigs and the complete hatred that is being entrenched into their young minds about Israel. In Israel, children are being thought about Peace and Hope.

So, indeed this is an important time that we are facing in the conflict in the Middle East. However, its again a strategic mistake by people that do not understand the issues at hand.

There is only ONE way to try and solve this problem and that is for the two sides to sit down and talk and have two real LEADERS that will take hard decisions and reach an agreement on their own, not through America or the EU imposing any terms.

What we do need to expect now is another huge conflict. In my opinion, an agreement will be agreed too reluctantly by the two sides BUT.. the fringes of the political sides of the two parties will create major problems including a big increase in the terrorist attacks on Israelis from both the Iranian controlled Gaza South and from the West Bank. These will derail the actual process and here we are, back to square one.

I hope I am wrong but as I said, I have been in this movie before and it does not end happily.








Thursday, January 2, 2014

A busy week for the Mossad

During the last few weeks there have been a flurry of events in the clandestine world that have been very interesting to observe. This is only my assumptions and I might be wrong but there seems to be a connection between these activities and the macro geopolitical aspirations of the Israeli Intelligence agencies.

Geopolitical aspiration #1 - Control the outcomes of the civil war in Syria

Israel has to walk a very thin line in regards to the civil war in Syria. On one hand, if the Assad regime wins this war, its somewhat good for Israel but will also help the Iranian aspirations and strength in the area. If Hezbollah wins, the longer term threats to Israel remain high, if they lose, it will be beneficial to Israel but might leave a large void for Al Qaeda elements to fill in the gap and that would be very dangerous for Israel's northern border. Keeping the war alive with no clear winner seems to be the best strategy for Israel. To achieve that, it seems that the Israeli intelligence agencies are supporting a small group of insurgents that are creating havoc in the back yard of Hezbollah in Beirut. This is evident in three large explosions that assassinated the head of the Hezbollah technical arm, another explosion that killed the head of the Iranian liaison team to Hezbollah in Beirut as well as a bombing today that killed 5 and happened right next to the headquarters of the political arm of Hezbollah. The organization is feeling the pressure right in its stronghold and has lost hundreds of fighters in the civil war already. Making the Lebanese people understand that the Hezbollah has lost all credibility in terms of its motto; to protect the Lebanese lands from an Israeli attack, has not been that difficult.  At the same time Israel has fortified its northern borders, their intelligence agencies are pushing hard to infiltrate the Al Qaeda elements in Syria and to keep a close eye on their movements inside Syria and especially on the Israeli border.


Geopolitical aspiration #2 - Control the outcome of the Palestinian negotiations for Peace

Given the unprecedented pressure from the self absorbed Secretary of State Kerry to resolve the 50 year conflict between the Palestinians and the Israeli's, the government of Israel has been asked to make amazing concessions just to provide good faith in the negotiations although these concessions have been returned by a high uptick in Israeli civilian murders by Palestinians in the West Bank as well as attacks from the Hamas-tan government in Gaza. The goal here is to control the extreme elements of the Palestinians while not overreacting to enrage the frustrated people of these territories. To that end, yesterday a mysterious explosion happened when the Palestinian ambassador to the Czech Republic opened his safe that he has been using for months now and killed him on the spot. I suspect this is not an accident and that he was involved in the attempt to transfer balance eroding weapons to the Palestinians authority or to Gaza. The Czech Republic is centered around a large weapons trafficking vain that comes from Albania to the Middle East.


So, as you can see, the other world we live in, the clandestine world, has been busier than ever. When you sit at home comfortably, people of the clandestine world are hard at work and are risking their lives for in the pursuit of the victory of good over evil

Think about it...